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Status
As we approach the final quarter of 2026, the global deep sea market is showing signs of stabilization, although uncertainty remains.
Freight rates between Asia and Europe have continued to go down during September, supported by additional capacity and the gradual return of some services through the Suez Canal. At the same time, congestion remains a challenge in several Asian and Northern European ports, creating schedule variability across supply chains. It is worth noting that the largest rate movements continue to be seen on Asia-US trade lanes, while rate developments from Asia to Europe have been comparatively more moderate.
With China's Golden Week holiday beginning on 1 October, many exporters are rushing shipments before temporary factory and logistics slowdowns. Customers should therefore expect fluctuations in capacity and transit times through October.
Red Sea developments: a gradual return to Suez
One of the most significant developments during September has been the continued return of services to the Suez Canal and Red Sea route. Additional carriers are reinstating Suez transits on specific Asia-Europe services.
This can reduce transit times compared with the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope. Although insurance costs remain higher for vessels transiting higher-risk areas, the Suez route still offers significant savings in both transit time and fuel consumption. For carriers, the routing decision is therefore based on a combination of security, insurance costs, operational efficiency and fuel economics.
Insurance: an increasingly important topic
Considering the latest changes in the market, it is very important to review cargo insurance arrangements.
Routing choices can impact insurance requirements and risk. Internal market discussions indicate increased attention across the industry to war-risk coverage, route deviations and delayed-transit exposure, particularly for shipments moving through higher-risk regions.
Most insurers issued Notices of Cancellation (NOC) during March 2026 relating to transports passing through designated high-risk areas in the Middle East and Red Sea region. These exclusions continue to apply. Customers with shipments entering or transiting these areas should therefore control whether insurance cover remains in place, unless specific approval has been agreed with their insurer. Coverage can normally be arranged either for individual shipments or through an open-cover agreement for a defined period.
Particular attention should be paid to the following areas:
High-risk areas
- Persian Gulf and Iranian territorial waters
- Gulf of Oman
- Strait of Hormuz
- Saudi Red Sea ports, including Jeddah, Yanbu and King Abdullah Port
Areas requiring additional review
- Gulf of Aden
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait
- Southern Red Sea waters
- Waters around Djibouti and Eritrea
- Parts of the Indian Ocean
- Waters around Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar
Customers purchasing goods under FOB (Free on Board) terms should verify:
- Whether cargo insurance includes appropriate war-risk coverage.
- Whether any geographical exclusions apply to the planned route.
- How route changes may affect policy conditions.
- Whether the insurance adequately covers cargo exposed to extended transit times.
- That General Average protection remains included within the policy framework.
Insurance providers can help avoid unexpected coverage gaps.
The key question is whether the insurance program reflects the actual route being sailed and the associated risks.
Our recommendations
- Book shipments as early as possible.
- Monitor routing developments between Suez and the Cape of Good Hope.
- Review cargo insurance coverage alongside freight planning.
- Verify whether shipments are affected by any war-risk exclusions or special notification requirements.
- Prioritize supply-chain resilience rather than focusing solely on freight rates.
Asia: congestion still impacts reliability
Several major Chinese ports continue to experience operational pressure following repeated weather-related disruptions during recent months. Backlogs and delayed vessel arrivals are still affecting schedule reliability, even as carriers work to restore normal operations.
This means that transit-time predictability remains more important than freight rates alone.
Europe: lower rates and port bottlenecks
We now see lower freight rates compared with peak summer levels. However, port congestion and inland transport constraints continue to affect cargo flows in parts of Northern Europe.
While the market is currently moving in a positive direction, customers should still build flexibility into inventory and transport planning.
Our thoughts about the next two months
Some positive news
Asia-Europe freight rates continue to trend downward, creating opportunities for improved transportation economics.
Potential risks
Golden Week disruptions and ongoing port congestion may continue to affect schedule reliability throughout October.
Greatest risks
Any deterioration in the security situation around the Red Sea could quickly affect transit routes, capacity availability, insurance requirements and freight costs